We’re just hours away from the 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, so it’s time to place my final predictions. The SAG Awards can be a beacon of what’s to come at the Oscars or they can often make choices that ultimately don’t align with the Academy. Last year, only two of the four SAG acting winners repeated at the Oscars. The year before, it was four for four. We know the actors branch is the largest in the Academy, so time will tell if their picks this year prove prophetic or fruitless.
Here are my final predictions of this year’s SAG Awards. The 28th Screen Actors Guild Awards will be held on Sunday, February 27, 2022, with a live broadcast on TNT and TBS at 8 pm (ET) / 5 pm (PT).
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
King Richard
Will win: CODA
Should win: The Power of the Dog…oh, wait…
Possible shocker: Don’t Look Up
With Best Picture contender The Power of the Dog bizarrely absent from this category, there’s every chance fellow BP frontrunner Belfast takes this one. While it’s unlikely Caitríona Balfe will score a supporting actress prize, it’s not uncommon for a film to snag an ensemble win and nothing else. The last three winners (The Trial of the Chicago 7, Parasite, and Black Panther) did just that, so we could see it again this year. But there’s just something about the charming CODA ensemble that makes it hard to resist here. It’s a tight two-horse race, but I think CODA has the edge, especially if Troy Kotsur takes home a supporting actor win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will win: Will Smith – King Richard
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Possible shocker: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
After his Golden Globe win in January, Will Smith will likely continue his sweep of the televised awards with a SAG victory. Benedict Cumberbatch may have dominated the critics portion of the season, but we all know that often means very little. That’s not to suggest he’s not very much in this race and could still absolutely pull off a win. Likewise with fellow Globe winner Andrew Garfield. But Smith has been the presumed Oscar winner for months and there’s been nothing to suggest that’s no longer the case. If he does lose, we’re in for an actual battle for Best Actor in March.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Will win: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Should win: Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Possible shocker: Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
With only three of these nominees snatching an Oscar nom, the winner could prove telling for who will be the Academy’s choice…or SAG could pick one of the other two and make this race even more confusing than it already is. After her somewhat surprising Golden Globe win in January and Kristen Stewart’s shock SAG snub, Nicole Kidman now feels like the frontrunner. A SAG win would truly cement that status. Kidman has oddly never won a SAG in the film categories, so this could finally be her year. But one can say the same of Olivia Colman and Jessica Chastain (the latter has an ensemble win for The Help), so they’re both nipping at Kidman’s heels. And with three SAG nominations for House of Gucci overall, never say never to a shock Lady Gaga victory.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Will win: Troy Kotsur – CODA
Should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Possible shocker: Jared Leto – House of Gucci
This is a tight coin-flip category between Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Neither has missed a beat all season with nominations at every major awards show. Smit-McPhee has the lion’s share of critics win plus a Golden Globe victory, so a SAG victory would make him practically unbeatable at the Oscars. There’s every chance the actors will want to give The Power of the Dog something and Smit-McPhee is the most likely choice. However, Kotsur has been so damn charming this season and his heartwarming performance is so ridiculously loveable. I think Kotsur is ever so slightly in front here, and this could be the real start of his Oscar campaign.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Catriona Balfe – Belfast
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga – Passing
Will win: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Should win: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Possible shocker: Anyone else
Ariana DeBose has this in the bag. Next.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Black Widow
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Will win: No Time to Die
Should win: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Possible shocker: Black Widow
This is always a fairly tough category to predict, given we have no precursor wins to really light the way. Personally, I think the stunts in Shang-Chi are the most impressive, but the last four winners have all been superhero films and I think SAG will look to honour something different this year. SAG gave this prize to Skyfall back in 2012, so there’s precedence for a victory for No Time to Die. Any of the five could really take it home, so there’s no telling which way they’ll go this year.