With Best Actress wins from the critics groups of Boston Online, Chicago, Florida, and Indiana, Frances McDormand should be the clear frontrunner right now, especially given her main rivals Viola Davis and Vanessa Kirby haven’t won a thing thus far. But McDormand’s Best Actress win in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is ultimately what’s making us pundits wary she’ll walk away with her third Oscar so soon after her second.
That being said, McDormand could easily continue to sweep awards season and become completely unstoppable. Davis and Kirby remain formidable contenders, especially Kirby, whose film Pieces of a Woman has still yet to be widely seen (it debuts on Netflix on January 7). That may explain her lack of nominations with the critics groups. I still maintain Kirby’s performance is going to blow people away, so she remains the frontrunner…for now.
The other big winners with the critics groups have been Carey Mulligan (Los Angeles, Sunset Circle) and Sidney Flanigan (New York, Boston). While Mulligan’s nomination chances become stronger with the positive reaction to the wider release of Promising Young Woman, Flanigan faces a tougher battle to snatch a spot.
Indie darling Never Rarely Sometimes Always was released way back in August and Focus Features will be fighting with the bigger studios for both the film and Flanigan to be noticed during the remainder of awards season. It’s still entirely plausible (think Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone), but let’s see how the next month plays out.
We now have confirmation Paramount Pictures has sold the distribution rights to The United States vs. Billie Holiday to Hulu, who are preparing to launch the film in time for awards season eligibility. While a date has still yet to be set, this news pushes Andra Day back into the top 5, purely on the buzz that’s been building around her performance for months now.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
5. Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Rachel Brosnahan – I’m Your Woman (Amazon Studios)
Carrie Coon – The Nest (IFC Films)
Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Han Ye-ri – Minari (A24)
Sofia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Elisabeth Moss – The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures)
Michelle Pfieffer – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Meryl Streep – The Prom (Netflix)
Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)