For several weeks now, four of the five Best Actress spots have been essentially set in stone for Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan. With the four all nabbing nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice Awards, you’d be remiss to call them anything but locks at this point.
McDormand has cleaned up with the critics groups, but there are few who believe she’ll claim her third Best Actress Oscar so soon after her win in 2018 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Davis remains firmly in the hunt, but her Best Supporting Actress win in 2016 for Fences could work against her. The groundswell of support for Promising Young Woman grows louder by the day and I think that may be the key to a win for Mulligan. If the film nabs a nomination for Best Picture, the Oscar is all but hers.
It’s the tricky fifth spot that’s proving all but impossible to predict. While Andra Day was able to score nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, she missed with SAG. A snub from SAG is far from fatal, but a nomination there would have proved she was a true contender. It also doesn’t help her film has received a muted response from critics (currently 59% on Rotten Tomatoes).
There’s every chance that final slot will go to Amy Adams, even if Hillbilly Elegy has been totally savaged by critics. With six nominations under her belt, she can almost be nominated by default these days (Vice, anyone?). However, after the Oscars shortlists included The Life Ahead in Best Original Score and Song plus What Would Sophia Loren Do? in Best Documentary Short Subject, it’s hard to overlook the Academy’s love for Sophia Loren. I’m going out on a limb and giving the last spot to the veteran actress.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
5. Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Yeri Han – Minari (A24)
Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)