This year’s race for Best Actress feels like it could be similar to 2019 when Renée Zellweger led right from the start of festival season for her performance in Judy and never shifted. After Spencer debuted to strong reviews at the Venice Film Festival in early September, Kristen Stewart became an instant frontrunner. And, frankly, it doesn’t look like it’s a crown she’s giving up anytime soon.
That’s not to suggest this race is devoid of great contenders. Much like every year, Best Actress is overwhelmingly stacked with possible nominees. But Stewart’s performance has received the kind of rapturous response that could make her practically unbeatable. Stewart seems poised to become the first actor to win this category on their very first nomination since Charlize Theron in 2004 for Monster.
Many thought this could finally be Jessica Chastain’s year for her performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. And it still could be. While Chastain has only been nominated twice previously, she almost has an “overdue” narrative behind her. The film itself hasn’t received the best reviews, but that’s never stopped many a previous winner. Through heavy make-up and hairstyling, Chastain transforms herself into the gaudy icon, which is usually a sure-fire way to win an Oscar. Just ask Zellweger and Theron.
But all eyes will be on The House of Gucci when it debuts in late November to see if it’s the film to snag Lady Gaga her second Best Actress nomination. The film looks as camp as a row of tents and it’s still hard to tell if it’s a masterpiece or a mess. But Gaga looks certain to deliver a scenery-chewing performance that could be just what the Academy is looking for.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (Neon)
2. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM)
4. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
IN CONTENTION
Halle Berry – Bruised (Netflix)
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Jodie Comer – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios)
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM)
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Renate Reinsve – The World Person in the World (Neon)
Tessa Thompson – Passing (Netflix)
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)