The final 10 screenplays picked by the Academy in late January brought few surprises. The only real curveball came with Blue Moon sneaking in for Best Original Screenplay; something no one really saw coming. Could this mean Ethan Hawke has a stronger case for Best Actor? Eh, maybe. Or perhaps Robert Kaplow just had more love from the writers branch than someone like Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby).
The five adapted nominees ultimately matched the Writers Guild of America nods perfectly. They went 3/5 on the original side, but Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident were ineligible with WGA, so their omissions were foreseen. The WGA winners will be announced after Oscar voting has ended, so their picks have no real bearing on the race.
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners) continued to show their dominance in the screenplay races. Both won at the BAFTAs to match their Critics Choice Awards wins. Both will likely win their respective WGA trophies. And both will undoubtedly carry on to collect their Oscars in a few weeks.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
3. Bugonia (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, WGA
Will Tracy
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) – CCA, WGA
Guillermo del Toro
5. Train Dreams (Netflix) – CCA, WGA
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Ryan Coogler
2. Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
3. Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
4. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – GG
Jafar Panahi
5. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Robert Kaplow