Awards season kicked off with the 35th Gotham Film Awards nominations, which aren’t exactly the strongest precursor prize for the Oscar race, but it does give a nice starting point for the screenplays in contention, particularly now that the Gothams have split their previous Best Screenplay category into adapted and original.
After its two Gotham noms, I’ve bumped up Train Dreams into my top five for Adapted for this month. It should be a priority title for Netflix, but I think their focus will be elsewhere. As such, it feels like it could be the kind of film that just receives a solo screenplay nomination.
On the Original side, Jay Kelly feels like it’s running out of steam. The film could rebound if it receives some love once it’s more widely seen with its limited theatrical release in mid-November. For now, that fifth spot is open to all sorts of possibilities, like Weapons, The Secret Agent, or The Testament of Ann Lee.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Gotham
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus Features)
Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Rian Johnson
4. No Other Choice (NEON) – Gotham
Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi & Lee Ja-hye
5. Train Dreams (Netflix) – Gotham
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
IN CONTENTION
Bugonia (Focus Features)
Die My Love (MUBI)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
The History of Sound (MUBI)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (TBD)
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Sentimental Value (NEON)
Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
3. Marty Supreme (A24)
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
4. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – Gotham
Jafar Panahi
5. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
IN CONTENTION
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
The Secret Agent (NEON) – Gotham
Sorry, Baby (A24) – Gotham
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Weapons (Warner Bros.)