As the race for Best Adapted Screenplay rolls along, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Jane Campion seems all but a certainty to win for The Power of the Dog. Campion has collected as many wins from the critics groups for directing as she has screenwriting. She’s sure to add many more in January. It’s starting to appear Campion may deservedly walk away with both Oscars.
Last month, I told you to keep an eye on Drive My Car and it’s truly taken off in December. Not only did the film win Best Picture from both the critics associations of New York, Los Angeles, and Boston, but the latter two also awarded Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe with Best Screenplay. I think there’s now every possibility it’s in strong contention for a Best Adapted Screenplay nod from the Academy. And it might even be the one screenplay to really challenge Campion.
One small note on Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter. While the film has received strong critical acclaim, its audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is shockingly low (currently 45%). It’s probably not worth reading too much into, but it could suggest the film may not play particularly well with Academy members who favour more populist/easily accessible fare. Oscar voters are not critics, so their tastes won’t always align with what the critics are crowing about. Does that mean Gyllenhaal could be looking at a shock snub? Maybe.
The nominations for the USC Scripter and the Writers Guild of America Awards in mid-late January will likely shed some light on how this race is tracking. That being said, there are always a few contenders who aren’t eligible with either group, so it’s not an exact science.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Jane Campion
2. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Tony Kushner
3. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Maggie Gyllenhaal
4. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
5. CODA (Apple TV+)
Sian Heder
IN CONTENTION
Cyrano (MGM)
Erica Schmidt
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
House of Gucci (MGM)
Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
The Humans (A24)
Stephen Karam
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Kim Morgan, Guillermo del Toro
Passing (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall
Shiva Baby (Utopia)
Emma Seligman
The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
William Monahan
tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Steven Levenson
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Joel Coen