Jane Campion holds firm at #1 this month in the race for Best Adapted Screenplay. And, frankly, I’m starting to think she won’t budge for the rest of the season. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%, The Power of the Dog is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the season and there’s just as much praise for Campion’s direction as there is her writing.
In 93 years of the Academy Awards, no more than two female screenwriters have been nominated in this category in the same year. But that’s a record that seems highly likely to be shattered this year. After The Lost Daughter swept the Gotham Awards, Maggie Gyllenhaal seems destined to join fellow writer-director Campion in the final five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.
With success at the Gotham Awards and the first round of critics groups nominations, CODA is strengthening as a major contender across the board. A nomination for Sian Heder’s screenplay is looking stronger by the day, meaning we’d be blessed with three female nominees for the first time in history. I could even see a situation where Rebecca Hall’s Passing takes the fourth spot and really shatters that glass ceiling.
If there’s one to keep an eye on, it would be Drive My Car. After staggeringly strong reviews and a surprise win for Best Film at the New York Film Critics Circle, the film will prove to be a major contender for Best International Feature Film. Much like Parasite in 2019, that will also help its case for a much-deserved screenplay nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Jane Campion
2. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Maggie Gyllenhaal
3. CODA (Apple TV+)
Sian Heder
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Tony Kushner
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Joel Coen
IN CONTENTION
Cyrano (MGM)
Erica Schmidt
Drive My Car (Sideshow)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
House of Gucci (MGM)
Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
The Humans (A24)
Stephen Karam
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Kim Morgan, Guillermo del Toro
Passing (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall
Shiva Baby (Utopia)
Emma Seligman
The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
William Monahan
tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Steven Levenson