Way back in 1993, Jane Campion became only the second female filmmaker nominated for Best Director for her work on The Piano. While she lost to Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List, Campion did take home a win for Best Original Screenplay. In 2021, she could be looking at adding a second screenwriting Oscar to her mantle.
While there is a long way to go yet, Campion’s adapted screenplay for The Power of the Dog is way out in front at this early stage of the race, especially if the Academy aren’t in the mood to award a female filmmaker with Best Director two years in a row. It’s unbecoming to call this her potential consolation prize, but that’s essentially how it was in 93 and that’s how it may be again this year.
Campion’s strongest competitor may stand as Joel Coen, who is going it alone for the first time in his career with his solo effort The Tragedy of Macbeth. Coen shared a Best Adapted Screenplay win with his brother, Ethan in 2008 for No Country For Old Men, and his adaptation of a Shakespeare classic puts him firmly in this race.
If there’s one to keep an eye on, it would be West Side Story. The screenplay is adapted from the 1957 Broadway musical by Tony, Emmy, and Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Tony Kushner, who should have won this category back in 2013 for Lincoln. Kushner is one of the most highly respected writers in the industry, and if West Side Story becomes a strong contender across the board, he could find himself leading this field.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Jane Campion
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Joel Coen
3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Kim Morgan, Guillermo del Toro
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Tony Kushner
5. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Maggie Gyllenhaal
IN CONTENTION
CODA (Apple TV+)
Sian Heder
Cyrano (MGM)
Erica Schmidt
Drive My Car (Sideshow)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
House of Gucci (MGM)
Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
The Humans (A24)
Stephen Karam
Passing (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall
Shiva Baby (Utopia)
Emma Seligman
The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
William Monahan
tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Steven Levenson