I know it’s getting tedious hearing the same thing every month, but Best Cinematography still remains a two-horse race between Joshua James Richards for Nomadland and Erik Messerschmidt for Mank. Richards has been the clear favourite amongst the critics (24 wins and counting), but we know that can ultimately mean nothing for the Oscar race.
The only possible spoiler could be Dariusz Wolski for News of the World, which could happen if Richards and Messerschmidt split the vote. Wolski is a veteran cinematographer chasing his first nomination and win. That could work in his favour against two newcomers.
The final two spots remain wide open and we may need to wait to see the American Society of Cinematographers nominations on March 9 to really know who the final five may be. Those nods will be announced just one day before Oscar nomination voting ends, so they may not exactly sway late votes, but should provide an insight into how the cinematography branch may be thinking. For now, I’m sticking with Minari and Tenet, especially given the former is picking up buzz across the board.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards
2. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt
3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski
4. Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Hoyte van Hoytema
5. Minari (A24)
Lachlan Milne
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Newton Thomas Sigel
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ben Smithard
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Maryse Alberti
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Łukasz Żal
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Sean Bobbitt
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Tobias A. Schliessler
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Martin Ruhe
Mulan (Disney)
Mandy Walker
One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Tami Reiker