Much like Chloé Zhao last year, Jane Campion is experiencing a dream run with the critics groups in the race for Best Director. Campion has already amassed more than 20 wins and there’s still another month filled with associations to announce their choices. There’s still plenty of time for this race to take a sharp detour elsewhere, but Campion is really starting to feel like the first major lock of the season.
That’s not to suggest Kenneth Branagh is completely out of this race. While Best Picture/Director splits are certainly more common in the last ten years, there’s still every chance Branagh could win if Belfast does take the big one. Campion is claiming all the headlines right now, but anything could happen in the next three months.
I’m starting to feel more confident Steven Spielberg will earn his first Best Director nomination since Lincoln in 2012. Sure, the box office numbers for West Side Story were disappointing, but I fail to accept that will have any true bearing on the Oscar race. It’s 20th Century Studios’ major hope this year and I think they’re going to put everything they can behind a campaign for the film and Spielberg. But if there is one shock Ben Affleck-style snub on the horizon, it’s likely going to be Spielberg.
That really leaves those last two spots up in the air. I think what Denis Villeneuve achieves in a directorial sense with Dune is impossible to ignore. I’ve long suspected the fifth spot will be reserved for an international filmmaker and I’m starting to believe that will be Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. After its shock Best Picture wins from the Los Angeles, New York, and Boston film critics associations and the National Society of Film Critics, it’s emerging as the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and stands a decent chance of a Best Picture nod. A nomination for Hamaguchi would make total sense.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
4. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros.)
5. Ryûsuku Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Janus Films)
IN CONTENTION
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Julia Ducourneau – Titane (Neon)
Asghar Farhadi – A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall – Passing (Netflix)
Pablo Larraín – Spencer (Neon)
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Jonas Poher Rasmussen – Flee (Neon)
Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God (Netflix)