With a clean sweep of all seven Best Director critics awards so far, Chloé Zhao is well on her way to becoming an unstoppable frontrunner. Throw in the fact she’ll become only the second female filmmaker to win an Oscar for Best Director and her film is one of the most critically acclaimed of the year, Zhao is looking like one of the first locks of the season.
However, there are still four months to go, and anything can happen between now and April, especially if Zhao keeps winning everything and voter fatigue sets in. While Mank hasn’t performed particularly well with the critics thus far, the Academy could be a different story, especially given David Fincher’s “overdue” status.
The Academy could very easily swoon over News of the World, meaning a nomination for Paul Greengrass is very much on the cards. Greengrass scored a surprise nomination in 2006 for United 93, and it could happen again this year. The Western epic is a major departure for the filmmaker and that’s something they often love to reward.
If there’s anyone below the line to keep an eye on, it’s Darius Marder. Sound of Metal has been building more buzz as the season rolls along, and he could easily be swept along for the ride. Likewise with Emerald Fennell, but it would be a pipedream to think the Academy would nominate three female filmmakers in one year.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)
3. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
4. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)
5. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Lee Daniels – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Pete Docter – Soul (Disney)
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Eliza Hittman – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Darius Marder – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Florian Zeller – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)