We knew the Academy wouldn’t match their five Best Director nominees with the DGA five, but no one expected the one to make room for Ryûsuku Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) would be Denis Villeneuve (Dune). In fact, just last month I referred to Villeneuve as “a lock.” Whoops. Given Dune earned 10 nominations, his snub is particularly shocking. Perhaps it was a case of too many members considering Villeneuve so safe that he didn’t need their vote. Whatever the reason, Villeneuve is now the instant frontrunner in a few years for Dune: Part II.
With 40 wins from the critics groups, nominations from DGA, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, and a Golden Globe victory, Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) has had this category locked down for months. The next few weeks should do nothing but solidify that status. You’d expect to see her win at all three ceremonies and cruise into Oscar night as the biggest lock of the night.
Is there a case to make for an upset win for any of the other four nominees? To be frank, no. Not in the slightest. That may sound bold, particularly when just two years ago Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite) pulled off an almighty upset by defeating DGA, BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice winner Sam Mendes (1917). But there is no Parasite-type contender this year and none of this year’s directors have that kind of late groundswell of support.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? The DGA will unveil their choice on March 12, while BAFTA and Critics Choice will both reveal their winners on March 13. Expect to see Campion win all three and land the final nail in the coffin of this category.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
4. Ryûsuku Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Janus Films)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM)