With more than 35 wins from the critics groups, nominations from DGA, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, and a Golden Globe victory, a Best Director Oscar win for Jane Campion is starting to look all but certain at this point. Campion is echoing Chloé Zhao’s path of victory from last year, and, quite frankly, she’s the only director that feels like a solid lock for a nomination.
The other filmmakers joining Campion in the DGA nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson, Kenneth Branagh, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve. History suggests the Academy won’t match 5/5 with DGA, particularly given the Academy’s recent penchant of nominating an international filmmaker with a non-Best Picture nominee like Paweł Pawłowski in 2018 for Cold War and Thomas Vinterberg last year for Another Round. It’s now abundantly clear this year’s international pick will be Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car.
While there’s still a decent chance Drive My Car nabs a Best Picture nomination, Hamaguchi clearly doesn’t need it to land a Best Director nod of his own. The film is the outright frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and Hamaguchi has managed to pick up a Best Director BAFTA nomination plus three directing wins from the critics including the National Society of Film Critics. Just a few weeks ago, a nomination for Hamaguchi seemed like a wild pick. Right now, it seems like a smart prediction.
So which of the DGA five make way for Hamaguchi? I think what Villeneuve achieves with Dune is impossible to ignore, so he’s the closest to a lock with Campion. Dune is going to lead the nomination tally, and it’s hard to see it achieving that without acknowledging the man responsible for pulling it all together. That leaves Anderson, Branagh, and Spielberg. Whoever misses out will feel like a major snub, given the pedigree of their careers and the presumed strength of their films.
I initially thought Anderson was the most vulnerable, purely on the “lightness” of his film. But it’s undeniable how much the Academy loves him. Just look at how Phantom Thread “overperformed” in 2017, including a somewhat surprising Best Director nod for Anderson. Then I considered it could be Branagh in a repeat of the snubs of Ben Affleck or Peter Farrelly i.e. the directors of a Best Picture frontrunner. That’s entirely possible (and may just strengthen Belfast chances like it did Argo and Green Book), but I think we’re looking at yet another Spielberg snub.
Even with two Best Picture nominees in the form of 2016’s Bridge of Spies and 2018’s The Post, Spielberg hasn’t nabbed a Best Director nomination since Lincoln in 2012. While West Side Story initially appeared to be a strong contender overall, its chances in the tech categories have faded. And it’s probably not really in the “top five” Best Picture contenders either. Spielberg has seven Best Director nominations and two wins. He’s been there and done this numerous times before. If you’re looking to drop someone from your ballot, he’s the easiest choice.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros.)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
4. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
5. Ryûsuku Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Janus Films)
IN CONTENTION
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Julia Ducourneau – Titane (Neon)
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall – Passing (Netflix)
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God (Netflix)
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)