It’s still early days, but the tide is certainly beginning to turn in the favour of The Power of the Dog. The film is performing well in the first round of film critics awards, particularly for Jane Campion as the possible chosen one for Best Director this year. Campion leapfrogs Kenneth Branagh into my top spot this month. After Chloé Zhao’s victory last year for Nomadland, a win for Campion would be the first time in history we’ve had two consecutive female winners. Even without that little narrative push, Campion would be an inspired choice.
Branagh is still firmly in the race for Belfast, but we’ve had several shocks snubs in recent years of directors from major Best Picture contenders like Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born in 2018 and Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2017, so never say never. There’s been a lot of chatter about Branagh’s sentimental direction being the least impressive element of the film, so perhaps he’s this year’s Cooper or McDonagh.
After a stellar critical reaction to West Side Story, Steven Spielberg sneaks into the top five this month. Look, it’s always difficult to know how the Academy will treat Spielberg every time he delivers an Oscar contender. He hasn’t been nominated for Best Director since Lincoln in 2012 and that’s despite Bridge of Spies and The Post both being up for Best Picture. Older Academy members may vote for Spielberg, but younger members might be looking for fresh blood.
Last year, the Academy nominated two female directors in the same year for the first time and there’s every likelihood they’ll be looking to do the same this year. I continue to believe one spot of the five may be reserved for an international filmmaker, so that could bode well for Julia Ducourneau. Titane won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but her confident direction is hard to ignore. Also keep an eye on Maggie Gyllenhaal. The Lost Daughter is performing well during the pre-season, so perhaps she could join Campion in the five nominees.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
4. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros.)
5. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
IN CONTENTION
Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Julia Ducourneau – Titane (Neon)
Asghar Farhadi – A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Rebecca Hall – Passing (Netflix)
Pablo Larraín – Spencer (Neon)
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Jonas Poher Rasmussen – Flee (Neon)
Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God (Netflix)