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Best Documentary Feature Oscars Predictions (December)

With the Oscars shortlists unveiled in late December, we now know the final 15 films in official contention for the five nomination spots for Best Documentary Feature. There were no major snubs to speak of, though it was disappointing to see great docos like Becoming Cousteau, Burning, The Lost Leonardo, The Spark Brothers, and Val miss the cut.

Summer of Soul continues to be the critics choice this year with over a dozen wins thus far. It’s a great way to start the film’s Oscar campaign, but keep in mind the early frontrunner for this category very rarely picks up the Academy Award. And they’re often not even nominated, which I’m starting to suspect may be the fate of Summer of Soul. Last year, the critics shared the wealth between Time and Collective, which both lost to My Octopus Teacher. How many critics wins did the latter pick up during the precursor season? Just one.

After a great run of success in December, Flee moves into my top spot this month. As expected, the film was also shortlisted for Animated Feature and International Feature Film and seems likely to receive three nominations for all three. The field in the other two categories is quite strong, particularly the latter, so I’m started to suspect its best shot may lie with the documentary category.

With The First Wave and In The Same Breath both making their way onto the shortlist, it means we have two covid-releated documentaries in contention. As the omicron variant surges around the world, it could impact this race in one of two ways; it may discourage voters from warming to documentaries covering something they’d rather escape from or it could strengthen their cultural importance and push either to a nomination.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Flee (Neon)
2. The Rescue (National Geographic)
3. Procession (Netflix)
4. President (Greenwich Entertainment)
5. Faya Dayi (Janus Films)

IN CONTENTION
Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
Attica (Showtime)
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (Neon/Apple TV+)
The First Wave (Neon)
In the Same Breath (HBO Documentary Films)
Julia (Sony Pictures Classics)
Simple as Water (HBO Documentary Films)
Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures)
The Velvet Underground (Apple Original Films)
Writing with Fire (Music Box Films)

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