The documentary frontrunner curse has been broken. After years of early frontrunners like Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Apollo 11, and Jane all failing to nab an Oscar nomination, Summer of Soul bucked the trend and rightfully landed a nod. It was ultimately The Rescue that earned a shock snub. With that roadblock out of the way, Summer of Soul is now the undisputed leader and likely winner.
The staggering number of wins from the critics groups for Summer of Soul likely made the film impossible for the documentary branch to ignore. The backlash would have been fierce. Now that it’s turned over to the entire Academy body to vote and it’s easily the most “high profile” nominee, there’s really nothing else in its way. And, of course, the film completely deserves to win.
The only possible contender that could challenge Summer of Soul is Flee, particularly after the doco scored plenty of headlines with its historic trio of nominations for Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film. The film has collected its fair share of wins this season and Neon are certainly giving it a major campaign push. But, sadly, I believe it’s starting to look like Flee will go 0/3.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? If Summer of Soul scores wins at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and PGA, it will become essentially unassailable. But if Flee can nab any of these victories, we might be in for an actual battle.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Flee (Neon)
3. Attica (Showtime)
4. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films)