The race for Best Original Screenplay is slightly more competitive than Adapted. That’s mostly due to the fact we don’t have a genuine frontrunner just yet. Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza is the favourite amongst the critics groups thus far, but it doesn’t have a huge lead and Anderson doesn’t feel as untouchable as Jane Campion in the Adapted race. There’s a lot of love for the film and Anderson is long overdue for his first win, so he still sits in the #1 spot for now.
Anderson’s strongest competition likely lies with potential Best Picture winner Belfast. If Kenneth Branagh’s film does win the big one, it’s likely bringing a screenplay victory along with it. This year may even be a repeat of Spotlight in 2015 and Belfast only wins those two categories, especially given Campion is looking stronger than Branagh in the Best Director race.
There’s been plenty of love from the critics groups for Fran Kranz’ screenplay for Mass, so it sneaks back into my top 5 this month. There’s still a big question mark around whether Bleecker Street can effectively campaign the film to secure the nominations it deserves, so time will tell. When we see the noms from groups like the WGA and BAFTA, we’ll have a better idea of how this race is shaping.
There’s often a screenplay nod that’s the film’s sole nomination, so perhaps potential contenders like Mike Mills’ C’mon C’mon, Edson Oda’s Nine Days, and Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch’s Red Rocket are in with a chance. And I still have a sneaking suspicion an international film will score a nod in one of the screenplay categories (or hopefully both), so that might be A Hero or The Worst Person in the World.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
3. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
5. Mass (Bleeker Street)
Fran Kranz
IN CONTENTION
Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Aaron Sorkin
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Mike Mills
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
The Hand of God (Netflix)
Paolo Sorrentino
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Asghar Farhadi
Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics)
Edson Oda
Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
Red Rocket (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Spencer (Neon)
Steven Knight
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt