Much like Jane Campion is cleaning up wins with the critics groups for directing and screenwriting, The Power of the Dog is already the clear critics’ choice with over a dozen Best Picture victories thus far. Are we seeing a repeat of 2020 where Nomadland experienced a similar run and never looked back? Or will everything change once the major awards begin? Only time will tell.
While I’m keeping Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast in the #1 position again this month, it’s clear The Power of the Dog will be a formidable contender. Most of us agree Belfast plays well with a broader crowd and that helps when it comes to something like the preferential ballot. My parents faithfully watch all the awards contenders each year so they know what I’m blabbering about. They admired The Power of the Dog, but they absolutely adored Belfast. That may provide an indication into how older members of the Academy will view this race.
If this is to be a two-horse race, we turn our attention to which eight films will join them in the final nominations. The top 10 lists of the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute generally help provide some insight. But it must be pointed out that just last year, the NBR chose Da 5 Bloods as their film of the year and it failed to even be nominated by the Academy.
Seven films managed a nomination from both groups; Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story. The NBR chose Belfast, The Last Duel, and Red Rocket to make up their 10, while the AFI selected CODA, The Power of the Dog, and tick, tick… BOOM!. The NBR’s snub of The Power of the Dog is rather strange, but last year’s Da 5 Bloods proves they can be way off sometimes.
I think we’re all fairly confident in presuming Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, and West Side Story are all practically locks for Best Picture nominations at this point. That leaves those final four spots open to a number of possibilities. For this month, I’m picking CODA, Drive My Car, tick, tick… BOOM!, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. I think those Best Picture critics wins for Drive My Car are giving it the headlines it needs to become a genuine contender for an Oscar nod in the big race. The Producers Guild of America nominations in late January will be our next key indicator into how this race is shaping.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
4. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
5. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
6. Dune (Warner Bros.)
7. CODA (Apple TV+)
8. tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A21/Apple TV+)
10. Drive My Car (Sideshow)
IN CONTENTION
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Flee (Neon)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Mass (Bleeker Street)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Passing (Netflix)
Spencer (Neon)
Titane (Neon)
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)