In December, we had Best Picture nominations for the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and AFI’s Top 10 list. Six films managed the trifecta of all three: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, and Bugonia, so should we presume those are our six safe bets so far? I can’t explain why, but I’m struggling to shake this gut feeling that the latter misses out.
The two big international contenders, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value, both missed one each (CCA for the former, AFI for the latter), but that just feels like a minor blip on their otherwise smooth road. It’s starting to feel like they’ll be joined by their NEON compatriot, The Secret Agent. Sure, it couldn’t land nods from CCA or AFI, but there’s a strong chance Wagner Moura wins Best Actor at the Globes, echoing fellow Brazilian Fernanda Torres’ victory last year, which ultimately heralded a Best Picture Oscar nomination for I’m Still Here.
Train Dreams just continues to pick up steam, and landing on the AFI list and scoring a CCA nod was the perfect way to keep its campaign going. With the campaigns of Netflix’s other contenders, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man, and A House of Dynamite, now feeling essentially dead, they’d be wise to start shifting more focus to Clint Bentley’s deceptively powerful little gem.
So that leaves us with the 10th spot open to many possibilities. It could absolutely be Bugonia. Maybe they really go hard for the international features, and it’s No Other Choice or Sirāt. It could be something totally left-field, like Weapons. For the moment, I’m sticking with Wicked: For Good. The fact that it missed a Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical at the Globes was a shock, but it recovered to land eight mentions on the Oscars shortlist, which maybe highlights there’s still enough love for it to make it into the top race.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – AFI, CCA, GG
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham
4. Sentimental Value (NEON) – CCA, GG
5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – AFI (Special Prize), GG
6. Marty Supreme (A24) – AFI, CCA, GG
7. Frankenstein (Netflix) – AFI, CCA, GG
8. Train Dreams (Netflix) – AFI, CCA, Gotham
9. The Secret Agent (NEON) – GG
10. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) – AFI, CCA
IN CONTENTION
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) – AFI
Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG
Bugonia (Focus Features) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham
Jay Kelly (Netflix) – AFI, CCA
No Other Choice (NEON) – GG
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) – GG
Sirāt (NEON)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) – Gotham
Weapons (Warner Bros.)