As we barrel towards the Oscar nominations announcement on March 15, we’ll soon know which films have made it into the Best Picture Race, but, more importantly, how many nominees we’ll have this year. The complicated voting process all but rules out the chance of ten, but, hey, there’s always a first time for everything.
The battle for who will ultimately win will take firmer shaper as ceremonies like the Globes, BAFTA, and PGA pick their winners. It still seems likely it’s between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland, but there are still two months to go and anything could happen between now and then. Minari is waiting in the wings to steal this whole damn thing.
I wouldn’t read too much into the HFPA failing to nominate Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami for Best Motion Picture – Drama. It says more about the lack of diversity in their membership than it does about these films’ chances of a Best Picture nomination.
Da 5 Bloods still remains a tricky one to predict. It was entirely snubbed by the Globes (the other Black-led films above were at least still acknowledged elsewhere), but it did nab a much-needed ensemble nod at the SAG Awards. The fact it was released all the way back in June may prove to be its downfall. Netflix has tried their utmost to keep the buzz going, but it still remains anyone’s guess if the Academy will nominate it across the board or it will just nab one or two nods.
If there’s one big surprise that could happen on nomination morning, it’s a Best Picture nod for Sound of Metal. Amazon Studios has launched a huge campaign for the film and it’s only grown in strength over the last few months. It’s on the cusp of breaking into the main race, especially if the Academy truly swoon over it.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Minari (A24)
4. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
6. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
7. Mank (Netflix)
8. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
10. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Soul (Disney)