Welcome to the big race for 2025. With the fall film festival season now in the distance and a few potential contenders still to debut on the horizon, it’s time for our first look at the battle for Best Picture.
While it bypassed the fall festivals entirely, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has leapt into the frontrunner status for Best Picture after staggeringly positive reviews from both the critics and the public (currently 95% and 85% on Rotten Tomatoes). After 11 unsuccessful nominations, Anderson’s date with Oscar success could be materialising on the horizon. Long way to go yet, but it’s hard to deny the film sits at the top of the pack right now.
Nipping at its heels is Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, which earned rave reviews at both Telluride and TIFF. Zhao became the first filmmaker in history to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award twice, and we know the film that wins that prize has gone on to a Best Picture nomination 13 times in the last 15 years (yes, I’m already presuming The Life of Chuck won’t make it in this season). Zhao has swept the Oscars before with Nomadland in 2020. Is it possibly too soon for her to do it all over again?
Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice scored the inaugural TIFF International People’s Choice Award, which should signal to NEON that they need to make it as big a priority as runner-up Sentimental Value. We’ve now had two years in a row where two non-English language films have made it into Best Picture. There’s no reason this shouldn’t continue this year. Heck, they could also throw in It Was Just an Accident and really make history.
While it was presumed no one would see Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme until close to December, it’s just been revealed it will hold its world premiere as a surprise screening at the New York Film Festival. Hold tight, folks. We will have our first reactions imminently and will get a better sense of its Oscar chances.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Hamnet (Focus Features)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
5. Sentimental Value (NEON)
6. Marty Supreme (A24)
7. Frankenstein (Netflix)
8. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
9. No Other Choice (NEON)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
IN CONTENTION
Bugonia (Focus Features)
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
The Secret Agent (NEON)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Train Dreams (Netflix)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)