There are still over 150 days until the Academy Awards. It’s impossible to predict what will occur between now and then, especially in regards to the race for the top prize of Best Picture. With such an extended season, will we see films that debuted in September-November simply run out of gas by April?
For now, I’m still sticking with Nomadland in the frontrunner position. Searchlight Pictures will release the film in American cinemas (those that are open, that is) in early December, so we’ll see if the wider reaction from both critics and the general public matches the raving response the film received during festival season.
Keep an eye on One Night in Miami and Minari. They are both picking up steam and won’t be widely seen until January and February, respectively. This could prove to be a shrewd strategy to time more effectively with the extended season. If anything is going to steal the thunder of films like Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Mank, it will be one of these two. Or Judas and the Black Messiah, if Warner Bros. would just announce a release date already.
One final note – after a disastrous response from critics, Hillbilly Elegy has all but dropped out of the Best Picture race completely. Yes, poorly reviewed films have still received Best Picture nominations in the past, but not films with a dismal Rotten Tomatoes rating of 27%. Even the much-maligned nominee Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close scored 45%.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
3. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
4. Mank (Netflix)
5. Minari (A24)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
10. Soul (Disney)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (NEON)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
First Cow (A24)
I’m Your Woman (Amazon Studios)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
The Prom (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)