Paul Raci continues to steamroll through the critics awards for his captivating performance in Sound of Metal. Is this a case of a frontrunner forming or another example where the Academy and the critics don’t match à la Ethan Hawke and Toni Collette? Raci will need to nab nominations from the bigger awards shows to cement his status as an Oscar player, and that will be difficult against his better-known rivals.
As anticipated, Leslie Odom Jr. has finally begun to rise. He’s proven to be the critics alternative to Raci with wins from major associations like the Online Film Critics Society. Surely, his campaign is helped by One Night in Miami‘s status as a bigger competitor overall. But Odom Jr. feels more of a Lady Gaga-type contender, in that he will be nominated for acting, but win for songwriting.
While we still await to see how awards season will respond to Daniel Kaluuya’s performance in late-breaking contender Judas and the Black Messiah, those of us lucky enough to see the film know the immense power of his work as doomed Black Panther Party chairman Fred Hampton. It’s the kind of showy performance the Academy loves, especially with Kaluuya dropping shades of soft vulnerability into the character. He remains the clear frontrunner for the moment.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
2. Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
3. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix)
Brian Dennehy – Driveways (FilmRise)
Bill Murray – On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)
Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)