Now that awards season has kicked into high gear, it’s time for some pre-precursor Oscar predictions. For this post, we’ll be discussing the Best Supporting Actress category. As of right now, it looks like it could be a two-person race between Laura Dern, a respected veteran who could finally get her moment in the sun, and ingenue Margot Robbie who looks to pull double trouble in this race.
Current Top Four:
In Laura Dern’s favor, she feels like a Supporting Actress winner waiting to happen. Dern is a part of an acting dynasty and is someone who has worked with likely everyone in the industry. Not to mention, she almost became AMPAS President and recently earned a surprise second nomination for Wild. In Marriage Story, she earned raves for her work as a ruthless divorce attorney and has Little Women, which is likely to be a Christmas hit, to help her case. As an added bonus, she’ll likely be picking up nominations for her work on the television series Big Little Lies.
On the other hand, Margot Robbie is having quite a run herself. Robbie is a recent Best Actress nominee for I, Tonya and nearly earned an afterglow nomination last year for Mary, Queen of Scots. Originally, Once Upon a Time..in Hollywood seemed like her best bet at a nomination. That is until recent reactions to Bombshell dropped like a bombshell. As opposed to her borderline cameo in Hollywood, her role in Bombshell is said to be quite substantial.
Back when Hustlers premiered at TIFF, there’s been all sorts of Oscar noise for Jennifer Lopez. It’s easy to see why since the famed entertainer does career-best work as a scheming stripper. The picture being a $100 million hit, along with her star power, should benefit her chances. Can she win, though? A nomination is definitely on the cards, but because she’s performing at the Super Bowl Halftime Show, will she be able to do much campaigning?
Sitting in fourth place is Thomasin McKenzie for Jojo Rabbit. The New Zealand-born actress is a highlight in this WWII satire as a Jewish girl hiding from Nazis. She’s also made good on the early promise shown in Leave No Trace last year. There’s also her co-star Scarlett Johansson to consider. However, McKenzie has slightly more screen time.
Then there’s that last slot.
Battle For Last:
For that last slot, I continuously go all over the place. As of now, I think it’s between Dame Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey, Florence Pugh in Little Women, Annette Bening in The Report, and Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell.
Two-time Oscar winner Dame Maggie Smith hasn’t been nominated since Gosford Park back in 2001. That might change with the film adaptation of Downton Abbey where she plays the Dowager Countess of Grantham, one of her most signature roles. Downton Abbey has become a sleeper hit and given how she’s 84 years old, this could be their last chance to cite her. Also, due to their film/TV crossover, the Golden Globes and SAG Awards could easily nominate her along with the BAFTA Awards because..duh. On the other hand, it’s still the continuation of a television series. So, there might be some bias present.
Next is the case for Florence Pugh. In the latest adaptation of Little Women, she plays Amy, the youngest of the March sisters. Although Little Women has a handful of supporting actresses to choose from, Pugh looks to be the best bet. Between this, Midsommar, and Fighting With My Family, Pugh is having a star-making year and early raves have hailed her as an acting standout. For what it’s worth, she just earned a Best Actress nomination for Midsommar at the Gotham Awards to add fuel to her Little Women chances.
Going back to veterans beloved by AMPAS, Annette Bening is one to consider. In The Report, which follows an investigation into the CIA’s post-9/11 Detention program, Bening plays Senator Dianne Feinstein. With four nominations under her belt, Bening is currently holding an IOU card. However, the movie’s Oscar hopes seem to hinge entirely on Bening. If it’s not her year to win and there’s an overall lack of passion for the film, she’ll easily miss.
Lastly, there’s Zhao Shuzhen looking to sneak in for The Farewell. As opposed to the other names vying for that last slot, Shuzhen is a complete unknown. Although, as the main character’s grandmother named Nai Nai, Shuzhen is the film’s emotional crux, offering both humor and pathos. She’d just need The Farewell to happen in Best Picture in order to strengthen her chances.
Predicted Final Five Are…
- Laura Dern, Marriage Story
- Margot Robbie, Bombshell
- Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
- Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
- Florence Pugh, Little Women
As of now, I do have Florence Pugh getting that last slot. Even if Little Women somehow isn’t an across-the-board contender, it still isn’t a sole acting play which The Report looks to be. Also, Pugh won’t succumb to the TV stigma that could hinder Smith’s chances. On a different day, I’d say Zhao Shuzhen could still sneak in. But Pugh is my current fifth pick.