What a chaotic nightmare this category is to predict. And with this standing as the final nominations predictions piece before the Academy announces the final five, there’s still no clear certainly who they will be. Nor a clear frontrunner to win.
Youn Yuh-Jung remains the outright favourite with the critics groups, but it’s still no absolute certainty that will translate into an Oscar nomination, especially after she was snubbed at the Golden Globes. But Youn’s much-deserved nominations at the SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards should be enough to cement her place in this race, particularly as Minari firms as a dark horse across the board.
The other darling of the critics awards has been Maria Bakalova, who, like Youn, hasn’t missed a beat so far with the major awards. She’s the frontrunner to win Best Actress – Comedy/Musical at the Globes. She’s nabbed key SAG and Critics Choice nominations. And Amazon Studios are campaigning her performance like crazy. But is Borat Subsequent Moviefilm just too crass for the Academy to acknowledge? I want to believe she’ll be there.
Ellen Burstyn remains one of the biggest question marks of the season. While many thought the veteran actress could make history as the oldest acting nominee in the history of the Academy Awards, her snub at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards is hard to overlook. She could rally and snatch a BAFTA nod, but that announcement will come just one day before Oscar nomination voting ends and will ultimately mean very little.
If there’s anyone waiting in the wings to steal that fifth spot, it’s Helena Zengel. She surprised many when she nabbed nominations at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, which suggests News of the World could be the overperformer I’ve long-predicted. And never say never to a Marina de Tavira-style nomination from nowhere for someone like Dominique Fishback, Charlene Swankie, or Olivia Cooke.
Way back in October, Glenn Close was sitting firmly in the frontrunner position after the Oscar-bait trailer for Hillbilly Elegy dropped. But when the film received an absolute drubbing from the critics, it seemed like her campaign was toast. But you can never count a legend out, and Close has steamrolled back into that #1 position with key nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. If she wins the Globe on Sunday, the race could be over and she’ll get her revenge over Olivia Colman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari (A24)
4. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
5. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Films)
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (NEON)
Charlene Swankie – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)