If the race for Best Supporting Actor is tough to predict, Best Supporting Actress is even more difficult. We’re still without a clear frontrunner but that may change as the season progresses. Or it could be like Best Actress last year and we head into Oscar night without a clue who’s winning.
Caitríona Balfe could be in the lead right now. Likewise with Aunjanue Ellis. Or Ruth Negga. But for this month, I’m going with Kirsten Dunst. Even without any previous Oscar nominations, Dunst has been such a reliable actress for almost three decades. She’s hard not to love and her performance in The Power of the Dog is truly something special. If the film continues to strengthen as a Best Picture contender, there’s every likelihood it’s taking an acting prize as well.
But Dunst faces stiff competition from Balfe, Ellis, Negga, and a whole host of other potential nominees. In a case of mild category fraud, Balfe is almost the co-lead of Belfast, which will only help her campaign. King Richard is such a solid crowd-pleaser and Ellis manages to hold her own against Smith. And if Netflix can give Passing the push it deserves, Negga could be a mighty contender here.
Now that West Side Story has premiered, we also have to give serious consideration to the luminous Ariana DeBose. She may play the same role that won Rita Moreno an Oscar in 1961, but she makes it completely her own. Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Hudson won this category for dazzling musical performances. Is DeBose next?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
5. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
IN CONTENTION
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Glenn Close – Swan Song (Apple TV+)
Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleeker Street)
Sally Hawkins – Spencer (Neon)
Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple TV+)
Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Martha Plimpton – Mass (Bleeker Street)
Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)