Too many contenders. Too few nomination spots. That’s the dilemma facing the race for Best Supporting Actress, which is ridiculously stacked with possible nominees. Picking just five at this early stage is nigh-on impossible. Even my additional “In Contention” list of ten performers could almost be doubled and I’d still be missing a few worthy mentions.
While you could essentially pick any of my top five as the frontrunner right now, Caitríona Balfe might just currently have the edge for her gorgeous turn in Belfast. The film has all the buzz for Best Picture right now and we know the big winner usually picks up an acting prize along the way. But will her co-star Judi Dench join her in chosen five? We know the Academy loves Dame Judi and her nomination would equal the late Gloria Stuart’s record as the oldest nominee in this category. A win would make Dench the oldest acting winner of all time.
Belfast isn’t the only film with two possible supporting actress nominations. The as-yet-unseen Nightmare Alley will likely throw both Toni Collette and Rooney Mara into the mix (and possibly even Cate Blanchett, if she doesn’t go lead). Mass is confirmed to campaign both Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton in the supporting race. And, if Rita Moreno’s role in West Side Story is substantial enough, she might be up against her co-star Ariana DeBose in the role that won Moreno an Oscar back in 1961.
We’ve also got a couple of former winners in contention with Marlee Matlin in CODA and Meryl Streep in Don’t Look Up (even if the film isn’t a major contender, you can never count out a Streep nomination). Plus another potential Glenn Close nomination for Swan Song. But if anyone truly deserves to join the party, it’s Ruth Negga, who just scored a Gotham Award nomination for her impeccable work in Passing. This race is already giving me a headache.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleeker Street)
3. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
4. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
5. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
IN CONTENTION
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Glenn Close – Swan Song (Apple TV+)
Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Sally Hawkins – Spencer (Neon)
Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple TV+)
Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
Martha Plimpton – Mass (Bleeker Street)
Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)