With the unveiling of the Academy’s shortlists, we now know the final 10 films in contention for Best Visual Effects. For the first time since 2009, no Marvel Studios films made it onto the shortlist, despite Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps being eligible. The latter feels particularly shocking, especially given some of the films that did make it onto the list (The Electric State?!).
Much like 2009 and 2022, we’re looking at a scenario where an Avatar sweeps this entire season with very little competition. Naturally, Avatar: Fire and Ash entirely deserves to, but it does make writing these monthly pieces a little dull. At least for another few weeks, we can have some fun speculating which four films will join it.
For now, I think the Academy will almost entirely match the Critics Choice Awards nominations with F1, Frankenstein, and Superman joining the Na’vi creations. That fifth spot is proving tricky to predict. It could be Sinners if it really sweeps the nominations. Tron: Ares was a dud, but it’s hard to deny its visuals were impressive. But I think the strong showing by Wicked: For Good in the shortlists gives it a slight edge for now.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) – CCA
2. F1 (Apple Original Films) – CCA
3. Superman (Warner Bros.) – CCA
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) – CCA
5. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
IN CONTENTION
The Electric State (Netflix)
Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal Pictures)
The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)
Sinners (Warner Bros.) – CCA
Tron: Ares (Disney)