With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. The Best Actor category appears to have three locks for Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, and Anthony Hopkins, who’ve each nabbed the quinella of nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTA. It would be a stunning turn of events to see any of these three fail to score an Oscar nod.
Gary Oldman is only missing a nomination from BAFTA where Mank was far from well-received, so his snub wasn’t hugely surprising. With nods from three of the four major players, you’d think he was safely in the top five, but it ultimately depends on how the Academy responds to Mank. Will it score 10+ nominations and be the most nominated film of the year? Or could it underperform and Oldman misses out? His veteran status should be enough to secure him a nod, but never say never.
While Steven Yeun wasn’t able to nab nominations at the Globes or BAFTA, his two nods from SAG (Minari is also up for their ensemble category) shows he has the support of the actors branch and Minari is peaking at the right time to sweep its leading man along for the ride. Yeun will become the first Asian-American nominated for Best Actor and you’d have to think the Academy would be crazy to nominate Minari for five or six Oscars including Best Picture and not acknowledge the film’s leading man.
But this is a stacked category and there are several strong contenders who could easily snatch a spot from either Oldman or Yeun. After it’s strong showing at the BAFTAs, The Mauritanian could be the late-breaker that sneaks into the Oscars race at the last minute. This bodes well for its lead actor Tahir Rahim, who nabbed nominations at the Globes and BAFTA. We know the Academy often leave a spot open for an “international” actor, so perhaps the real dark horse here is Mads Mikkelsen for Another Round. His film is the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film, so perhaps that will push Mikkelsen into the Best Actor final five too in a similar fashion to Antonio Banderas last year.
And just one final word on Delroy Lindo. Most of us have been desperate to see Lindo earn his first Oscar nomination since Da 5 Bloods dropped on Netflix way back in June. There’s still a mild chance it could happen, but his film clearly debuted too early and it’s never really been able to kickstart its Oscar campaign. Despite Da 5 Bloods scoring an ensemble nomination at SAG, Lindo couldn’t nab an individual nomination, and I think that was the final nail in the coffin of his campaign. It’s an absolute travesty Lindo won’t be acknowledged, but we’ve seen this before and we’ll see it again.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)
5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)
Alternate: Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)