With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. I think we can safely assume four of the five spots for Best Actress are practically set in stone for Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan, given all four received nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards. BAFTA went their own way and snubbed Davis and Mulligan, but we always suspected their new jury voting system would throw a few leftfield choices.
While the battle for who ultimately wins the Oscar may become clearer over the next month, for now we await to see who the Academy will pick in that fifth spot. As the late-breaker into this race, Andra Day has all but solidified her spot in the final five, especially after her surprise win at the Golden Globes. She couldn’t nab a nomination at SAG (many suspect screeners didn’t reach voting members in time) or BAFTA, but that Globe victory came at just the right time and would have likely led to a surge of interest in her performance from Academy members.
In the early days of awards season, there seemed a strong chance veteran Sophia Loren would nab her first nomination in over five decades for The Life Ahead. The fact the film appeared on the Oscars shortlist for Best Original Score and Song (plus shortlisting for What Would Sophia Loren Do? in Best Documentary Short Subject) seemed to suggest there was strong love for Loren this year. There’s a mild chance she could pull off a shock nomination from nowhere, but it’s hard to overlook the fact Loren hasn’t scored a major nomination anywhere else this season.
If there is to be a nomination from out of the blue, it could be Yeri Han for Minari. The film is now considered a major contender across the board and that could be enough to deservedly sweep Han along for the ride. The same could occur for Sidney Flanigan, who scored two major wins from the critics groups of New York and Boston for her breakthrough performance in Never Rarely Sometimes Always. And it’s never wise to discount the potential of Amy Adams, even with the total revulsion around Hillbilly Elegy. But I think Day takes that final spot and Best Actress was ultimately far more easy to predict than first suspected.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
5. Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Alternate: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)