With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Much like many categories this year, Adapted Screenplay appears to have four locks for nominations in Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and The Father. One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey each nabbed nominations from the WGA, Critics Choice, and the USC Scripter Awards, while Nomadland landed nods at BAFTA, USC, the Golden Globes, and Critics Choice (it was ineligible at WGA).
While The Father was nominated by BAFTA and the Golden Globes (it was also ineligible at WGA), it was strangely snubbed by USC, meaning it’s on slightly more uncertain ground than the other three. The film has experienced a rather poor precursor season, so it’s anyone’s guess if it will repeat a similar fate with the Academy or overperform and nab a swag of nods. Regardless, a nomination for Florian Zeller’s screenplay still feels like a relatively safe bet.
That leaves the fifth spot open for several contenders in contention. After somewhat-surprising nominations from WGA and PGA, it could certainly be Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Don’t forget the Academy did nominate its predecessor. With nominations from Critics Choice, WGA, and USC, it may be News of the World. And we can’t forget First Cow. If it misses a screenplay nom (the only category it’s really in contention for), it will become the first New York Critics Circle winner for Best Film to fail to receive a single Oscar nomination. When the WGA surprisingly snubbed First Cow, I think that was the final nail in the coffin and that NYCC stat is about to end.
But my final spot goes to The White Tiger, which has seen a surge in strength over the past few weeks with key nominations from WGA and BAFTA. Look, maybe this overthinking matters, but the fact the Academy has invited Priyanka Chopra to read out the nominations could be a sign her film will score at least one nomination. The film debuted on Netflix late in awards season, which may explain its lack of precursor success. It’s peaking at just the right time and may just steal that fifth slot. Or News of the World or Borat Subsequent Moviefilm overperform and one of the two nabs it. Or the NYCC stat holds and it’s First Cow. Honestly, if you’re making predictions, it’s probably best to just flip a coin for the fifth spot.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
5. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani
Alternate: News of the World (Universal Pictures)