With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. The American Society of Cinematographers sure dropped a (cherry) bomb on this race with their nominations announcement. From seemingly nowhere, Newton Thomas Sigel nabbed a nomination from the ASC, but not his work on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, but rather the Russo brothers much-maligned Cherry.
A wacky guild nomination like this could usually be considered a wild anomaly, but the ASC has been incredibly consistent with predicting the eventual Oscar nominees (they generally match four or five with the Academy), so it really can’t be ignored. It’s been over 20 years since a film nabbed a nomination from the ASC and was completely ignored at the Oscars (The Boxer in 1997), so does that mean Cherry is in?
Personally, I just can’t see it happening. Stats are made to be broken and Cherry seems more destined to join The Boxer than making it into the Academy’s final five. We know Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World are certainties, given all three received nominations from ASC, BAFTA, and Critics Choice where Nomadland was the winner. The Academy will likely follow the lead of the ASC and nominate The Trial of the Chicago 7, even if its cinematography is far from anything special. That leaves the final spot open. While it certainly could be Cherry, Judas and the Black Messiah has peaked at just the right time and Sean Bobbitt is owed the nomination he should have received in 2013 for 12 Years a Slave.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards
2. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt
3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Phedon Papamichael
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Sean Bobbitt
Alternate: Cherry (Apple TV+)