With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. There’s been a strange phenomenon in recent years in the Best Documentary Feature category where the perceived frontrunner is ultimately snubbed by the Academy. In 2019, it was Apollo 11. In 2018, it was Won’t You Be My Neighbor?. And in 2017, it was Jane. Being the leader in this category ultimately proves to be more of a curse than a blessing.
So who’s wears that unfortunate crown for 2020? With the lion’s share of wins from the critics and nominations at PGA, Critics Choice, and the International Documentary Association, the frontrunner appears to be Time. Does that mean it will continue the curse and miss out? We know the Academy isn’t particularly fond of documentaries constructed from archival footage, so that doesn’t help its cause. But there’s a groundswell of love for this film and its pertinent themes of the unjust incarceration of people of colour should be enough to see it avoid the same fate of other frontrunners.
Collective recently won Outstanding Achievement in Nonfiction Feature Filmmaking at the Cinema Eye Honors and it nabbed nominations at IDA and BAFTA. Throw in the fact it’s also been shortlisted for Best International Feature and that’s more than enough to lock in a nomination here. While The Truffle Hunters may have missed a BAFTA nom (it was still longlisted), it did nab nods from PGA, DGA, and IDA, so that’s a solid run that should lead to an Oscar nom. And the final two spots could go to half a dozen films.
Welcome to Chechnya, Dick Johnson is Dead, Crip Camp, Boys State, and The Painter and the Thief are firmly in the race. But My Octopus Teacher is the heartwarming, feel-good contender that I think voters will find hard to resist. And it scored noms at BAFTA, PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice. Coming off a recent U.S. election, you’d have to think the final spot will go to a political documentary, and All In: The Fight for Democracy fits that bill perfectly. But I’ll be honest and admit this is the one category I expect to perform extremely poorly, so maybe chart your own course on this one.
BEST DOCUMENTARY PREDICTIONS:
1. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
2. Time (Amazon Studios)
3. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios)
Alternate: Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)