With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. We’ve had two locks in the Original Screenplay category all season long with Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman duking it out for weeks now. They both received nominations from the Golden Globes (where Sorkin won), Critics Choice (where Fennell won), BAFTA, and the WGA, so their Oscar nominations are all but assured.
Jack Fincher’s Mank has also scored nominations from all of the above bar WGA where it was ineligible, so one would assume he’s safe. But if there’s one category where Mank may experience a shock snub, it’s likely here, especially given Fincher’s screenplay was hardly the most celebrated aspect of the film when it dropped back in November. Minari is an odd contender in that its screenplay has only picked up a nomination from Critics Choice and nowhere else (it was ineligible at WGA). That’s hardly a great statistic but the film has proven itself as a strong contender across the board and you can’t call it a Best Picture contender without its screenplay also being acknowledged.
That leaves us with a fifth spot left for two films to battle over. Both Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah picked up WGA nominations and the former also scored a nod from Critics Choice. They’ve each strengthened as major overall contenders for nominations in the past few weeks and it’s possible both get in and boot Fincher out. But if Fincher holds firm, I suspect it will be Sound of Metal that nabs that final place.
And just one final thought. While I couldn’t imagine which film I’d take out to make room for Soul, Pete Docter has an impeccable record when it comes to the Academy Awards. He’s been nominated for Best Original Screenplay four times for his work at Pixar, which makes him the equal-fourth most nominated screenwriter in this category. I really don’t think there’s a place for him this year, especially given Soul hasn’t nabbed any screenplay nominations anywhere else that would suggest an Oscar nod is on the cards. But never say never.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)