With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. The Oscars shortlist for Best Original Song whittled the contenders down to 15, but who will make the final five is still fairly wide open. There appear to be two certainties in “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami and “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead. Both nabbed nominations at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes where “Speak Now” won the former and “Io Sì (Seen)” won the latter. Who wins the Oscar is anyone’s guess at this point.
“Húsavík (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga scored nominations at Critics Choice, Hollywood Music in Media, and Society of Composers and Lyricists, so it’s finally feeling extremely safe. Judas and the Black Messiah has only grown in strength over the last few weeks, and that should be enough to secure a nomination for “Fight For You,” especially after the song scored nods at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Hollywood Music in Media.
That leaves us with the fifth spot to fill. While the surprise PGA nomination for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm could signal its underestimated strength with the Academy, “Wuhan Flu” is likely too on-the-nose for the music branch to recognise. But anything’s possible this year. The potential overall dominance of The Trial of the Chicago 7 could pull a nod for “Hear My Voice” (though I’d challenge anyone to tell me they actually remember this song). However, I’m giving the edge to “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy, purely on the basis the Academy loves to throw a nomination to a song from a documentary (RBG, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Hunting Ground, Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth
2. “Io Sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Diane Warren, Laura Pausini and Niccolò Agliardi
3. “Húsavík (My Hometown)” – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha
4. “Fight For You” – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, and Tiara Thomas
5. “Turntables” – All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios)
Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, and George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II
Alternate: “Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)