With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. We’ve known for a long time this Oscar is highly likely going to Mank, given its absolute dominance over the critics awards season and its key nominations from the Art Directors Guild and BAFTA, and its win at the Critics Choice Awards. The real mystery is ascertaining what the other four nominees will be.
News of the World scored nominations from ADG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, so that seems locked in. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Tenet both nabbed nods from ADG and Critics Choice and were longlisted by BAFTA, so they also appear safe, especially given the Academy’s love for Tenet production designer and five-time nominee Nathan Crowley. So, much like most categories, that leaves us with a wide-open fifth slot.
In the past, you would assume lavish British period films like Emma. or The Personal History of David Copperfield would be shoo-ins for production design nominations. But it’s hard to overlook the fact both were shockingly snubbed by the ADG and neither could score a BAFTA nod (the latter wasn’t even longlisted). There’s still every chance one of them will sneak in or it could just as easily be Mulan, but I have a feeling the Academy will instead pick ADG nominee The Midnight Sky.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN PREDICTIONS:
1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)
3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)
4. Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)
5. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Jim Bissell (production designer), John Bush (set decorator)
Alternate: Mulan (Disney)