With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. While the race for Best Supporting Actor isn’t quite as hellishly chaotic as Supporting Actress, there’s still much conjecture over who will make the final five. Three spots appear like locks for Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen, and Leslie Odom Jr. All three nabbed nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice Awards, while Odom Jr. and Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner Kaluuya also scored BAFTA nods. They’re all seemingly safe.
That leaves the final two spots wide open for a number of possible contenders. Paul Raci was the outright favourite during the critics awards (though Kaluuya almost caught up to Raci in the last few weeks). While Raci missed nominations at the Golden Globes and SAG, he did score a BAFTA nod to add to his Critics Choice nomination. And Sound of Metal has really picked up steam in the final stretch with key nominations at PGA, DGA (First-Time Feature), and WGA. I think that’s enough to push Raci over the line.
For a long while, most of us suspected the late Chadwick Boseman would be a double nominee with nods for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods. And that absolutely could still happen. However, outside of SAG and Critics Choice, Da 5 Bloods just hasn’t performed particularly well. It was completely snubbed at the Globes. BAFTA also ignored it. It didn’t make the PGA list. Writer/director Spike Lee failed to receive nominations from either DGA or WGA. And it’s now looking unlikely to secure Oscar nominations anywhere else but here. Boseman is almost assuredly winning Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Will that negate the need for a second nomination?
Waiting in the wings to snatch a nomination is Jared Leto. He came from nowhere to nab nominations at the Golden Globes and SAG for his creepy performance in the much-maligned The Little Things. That could lead to an Oscar nom, but I’m going out on a limb (and maybe this is just my heart talking) and giving the fifth spot to Alan Kim for Minari. Kim is essentially a co-lead with Steven Yeun and his precocious performance is an utter delight that could easily charm Academy voters, especially given Minari has been firming as a major contender across the board. Kim’s utterly adorable acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Young Actor/Actress may have come late during Oscar nomination voting, but it might have been enough to snatch a swarm of late votes his way. And, frankly, he may have already grabbed enough votes before that viral moment anyway.
And one final thought; don’t be surprised if that fifth spot goes the way of someone who hasn’t scored nominations anywhere else. Think David Strathairn for Nomadland, Stanley Tucci for Supernova, Clarke Peters for Da 5 Bloods, Glynn Turman or Colman Domingo for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, or any of Cohen’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 co-stars like Mark Rylance, Frank Langella, or Eddie Redmayne.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
3. Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
4. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
5. Alan Kim – Minari (A24)
Alternate: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)