With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; the race for Best Supporting Actress is an absolute nightmare to predict. The precursor season for this particular category has been an absolute rollercoaster of twists and turns where no actress has managed to secure nominations across the board. Every contender has a mark against their campaign, so there really are no certain outcomes here. Don’t listen to anyone telling you they know which five performances are assured of a nomination. We don’t have a clue.
The two most-consistent performers all season have been Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung. They both earned numerous wins from the critics groups (though Youn took the lion’s share) and they are the only two performers to nab nominations from SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice (which Bakalova won). Now that Minari has strengthened as a major contender overall, Youn feels the closest to a sure-thing. But we know the Academy has a chequered history with nominating Asian actors (just last year they failed to nominate Indie Spirit winner Zhao Shuzhen, Golden Globe winner Awkwafina, and anyone from the SAG Award-winning Parasite ensemble), so it’s not completely smooth sailing for Youn.
As we’ve long known, there’s a massive question mark hovering over Bakalova and whether she’ll ultimately stand as one of the rare times the Academy acknowledges a comedic performance or the crass humour of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is just not Oscar voters’ cup of tea. Her loss at the Golden Globes (where she was in lead) was a huge shock, but she recovered with those nominations at SAG and BAFTA and the groundswell of support to acknowledge her work should be enough to get her over the line. Robin’s brilliant piece on the history of comedic performances at the Oscars has also convinced me Bakalova will earn the nomination she deserves.
Then there’s Olivia Colman, who seemed like a shoo-in to attain her second Oscar nomination for her heartbreaking turn in The Father. But the film has massively underperformed in the precursor season (personally, I think Sony Picture Classics is to blame for a dreadfully slow campaign rollout) and her snub on home soil at BAFTA was a huge blow to her campaign, especially given there were six nomination spots. But we know the industry adores Colman (who in the Academy wouldn’t remember her infamous 2019 Oscar speech?) and her nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice should be enough to signal she’ll nab an Oscar nod.
If Youn, Bakalova, and Colman are mildly safe for the first three spots (they’re not, but let’s just pretend they are), that leaves the final two slots open to almost half a dozen actors in genuine contention. We would normally consider a nomination for Glenn Close a sure-thing, especially after nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. But she couldn’t win at the Globes, even without Youn and Bakalova as her competition. Nor did she nab a BAFTA nomination. And there are few out there who really want to see Close win her “overdue” Oscar for such a subpar film. Is that enough to also cost her a nomination?
From seemingly nowhere, Jodie Foster has emerged as a genuine contender for a nomination for her performance in the late-breaking The Mauritanian. Now, it has to be said that she literally only has a Golden Globe nomination (and, more importantly, a win) leading up to the Oscars. No BAFTA, SAG, or Critics Choice nominations would normally rule out an Oscar nom. But this is four-time Oscar nominee, two-time Academy Award winner Jodie Foster we’re talking about here. And that has to count for something. That Globe victory (and viral speech moment) may have given her the edge.
And, just to complicate this category further, we have to also consider Amanda Seyfried, Ellen Burstyn, Helena Zengel, and Dominique Fishback. At one point, many of us had Seyfried as the frontrunner to win this thing. And now she may not even be nominated. She may have nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, but her SAG and BAFTA snubs could be hugely telling. Also once considered a strong candidate to win, Burstyn has only nabbed a nomination from Critics Choice and her campaign just never really caught fire.
Zengel scored Golden Globe and SAG noms but received no love from BAFTA or Critics Choice. If News of the World overperforms (and it’s genuinely difficult to guess if it will), she could get swept along for the ride. Fishback is riding the last-minute surge of Judas and the Black Messiah, which could be enough to see her steal a spot, especially after she secured a BAFTA nod. She may have failed to score nominations elsewhere, but her film was such a late-breaker and that could explain the lack of love from SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globes. Let’s also remember the 2018 nomination of Marina de Tavira for Roma, who hadn’t received a single major nomination elsewhere before her surprise Oscar nomination. This year, that could be someone like Swankie, Olivia Cooke, or Priyanka Chopra.
So, when all is said and done, we prognosticators just have to select five female actors from the litany of contenders and hope for the best. Anyone who ultimately scores well in the category will only do so by blind luck. Game on.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari (A24)
2. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
5. Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Films)
Alternate: Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)