With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. It’s an odd year for the visual effects race, given the usual crop of bombastic blockbusters were mostly shelved until 2021. There’s no Marvel film in the running or any of the usual plethora of CGI-dominated summer films. The closest we have this year is Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, which is possibly the only film with a lock on a nomination in this category. This race should have also included the last blockbuster before lockdown The Invisible Man, had it not been unconscionably snubbed from the Oscars shortlist.
The Midnight Sky and Mank both nabbed nominations at the Visual Effects Society, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, so they seem fairly secure in the top five. We know the Academy loves to acknowledge Disney’s live-action blockbusters in this category (The Lion King, Christopher Robin, The Jungle Book, Alice in Wonderland), which bodes well either for Mulan or for their straight-to-Disney+ release The One and Only Ivan. You probably forgot the latter even existed, but it’s photorealistic CGI animals are the type of fodder Academy voters generally fawn over. And it scored noms from VES, BAFTA, and at the Annie Awards, so it’s likely heading for an Oscar nom. That being said, it could just as easily go to Mulan, especially given it received nominations from VES, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
That leaves the final spot open and it offers the Academy the chance to make history by nominating a documentary in this category for the very first time. The visual effects of Welcome to Chechnya weren’t there to create alien characters or take an audience into some fantastical world crafted with computers. They highlighted how deep fake technology could be used to mask the true identities of LBGTQ+ refugees desperate to flee from the atrocities of their homeland. It was such a monumental moment for the Academy to shortlist the doco for its visual effects and it would be terrific to see them take that one step further with a much-deserved nomination.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Tenet (Warner Bros.)
2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
3. Mank (Netflix)
4. The One and Only Ivan (Disney)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Films)
Alternate: Mulan (Disney)