You know it’s an odd year at the Oscars when Best Original Song is one of the most exciting and unpredictable races. In recent years, tracks like “Shallow” from A Star Is Born, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Remember Me” from Coco, and “Glory” from Selma placed a lock on this Oscar practically from the start of awards season and never let go. But this year, the race is still wide open as we head into the ceremony.
With her twelfth nomination for Best Original Song, legendary songwriter Diane Warren is still chasing the Oscar that has eluded the composer since her first nod in 1988. Is this finally her year? As has been the case for her past five nominations, Warren’s nod for “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead is the film’s sole nomination, which may work against her campaign, given voters won’t be exposed to the film elsewhere. And the songwriters’ names do not appear on the voting ballot, so unless voters are aware this is a Warren track, there’s no name recognition here.
The other hot contender has been “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, which is co-written by the film’s Oscar-nominated star, Leslie Odom Jr. Odom Jr. recently performed the track live at the BAFTAs, which was a shrewd piece of last-minute campaigning that keeps the track at the forefront of voters’ minds. We know that Odom Jr. won’t be taking home Best Supporting Actor, so it’s plausible he could be this year’s equivalent of Lady Gaga who lost Best Actress in 2018 but won Best Original Song for “Shallow.” However, given Odom Jr.’s name won’t be on the ballot, it’s possible voters may only believe he performs the track and remain unaware he also co-wrote it.
But the real darkhorse contender here is “Húsavík (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga. Of the five nominees, it’s the only song that’s actually performed during the film and the only track to play an integral role in the film’s plot. While the Academy has never really shown an aversion to end-credit songs, there is something more impressive about a track that wasn’t just tacked on at the end to earn an Oscar nod. It’s the kind of stirring ballad that typically captures Academy votes, so perhaps it could score an upset victory.
So what’s my final prediction? As much as I’d like to live dangerously and predict “Húsavík (My Hometown),” I think I’ll play it safe and go with “Speak Now.” Amazon Studios have strongly campaigned the track to make sure voters are aware Odom Jr. is one of the song’s writers and there’s a political undertone to the track that makes it pertinent to the current social climate. And that performance at the BAFTAs just before Oscar voting began was a brilliant move that’s hard to ignore.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Music and Lyrics by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
2. “Húsavík (My Hometown)” – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Music and Lyrics by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
3. “Io Sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Music by Diane Warren; Lyrics by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
4. “Fight For You” – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyrics by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
5. “Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
Will win: “Speak Now”
Should win: “Húsavík (My Hometown)”
Possible shocker: “Hear My Voice”