With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. For almost the entirety of awards season, there have been four solid contenders for Best Actor with a wide-open fifth spot up for grabs. The precursor awards have certainly solidified that theory and we’re mostly just left to debate who’s taking that last place.
With nominations at BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and SAG, Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), and Bill Nighy (Living) have all but sewn up their Oscar nominations. Farrell has the lion’s share of wins with the critics plus a Golden Globe victory. Butler has a Globe, while Fraser won with Critics Choice. All four are first-time nominees and if the fifth spot goes to a first-timer too, it’ll be the first time this has occurred in the Best Actor race since 1934.
The strongest competitor for that final spot appears to be Paul Mescal (Aftersun). He’s got noms from BAFTA and Critics’ Choice. He’s a star on the rise after his breakthrough Emmy-nominated role on Normal People in 2020. His film has stellar reviews and a lot of love behind it, even if it hasn’t really taken off as a contender overall. It’s concerning he didn’t get a nod from SAG (they went with Adam Sandler, which will likely just be a weird anomaly), but my gut says Mescal gets in.
If the Academy reject Mescal and pick a previous nominee to join the final five, that aforementioned piece of Oscars history will remain intact. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) who’s looking for his first Oscar nod in more than 20 years. There was a lot of buzz for Hugh Jackman (The Son) until his film’s campaign fell apart after receiving dreadful reviews. But I think the real threat to steal that fifth spot from nowhere is Tom Hanks. Look, I’m really just basing this on the fact that my parents adored A Man Called Otto as much as they loved CODA last year. They were clearly onto something last season. They could be onto something again this year. Underestimate Hanks at your own peril.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA
Alternate: Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)