With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. As always, the quest to predict the final five nominees for Best Actress is a near-impossible task. There are only two absolute certainties. Those other three spots are open to all sorts of possibilities. Anyone who gets all five right this year is just lucky.
Those two locks are Cate Blanchett (TÁR) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). The two have battled it out all season long with the critics groups where Yeoh has a decent lead. They both won at the Golden Globes. Blanchett scored with Critics’ Choice. And they’ll both face off again at BAFTA and the SAG Awards. Who wins is still anyone’s guess, but they’re both assured of Oscar noms.
Viola Davis has the same quartet of precursor nominations for The Woman King. While the film never really took off as a broader contender, it’s never wise to bet against someone as revered and beloved as Davis. She’s in. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) is only missing a Golden Globe nod and there’s no point in reading too much into that. She’s likely in too and we’ll have two Black nominees in Best Actress for only the third time in history.
So who takes that final spot? Once Universal Pictures announced Michelle Williams would be campaigned as lead for The Fabelmans, most of us locked her in for a Best Actress nomination. While she nabbed nods from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, she was noticeably absent at BAFTA and SAG. Those two count for more than, particularly this late in the game. Last year, Kristen Stewart missed nods from both those awards bodies and still landed an Oscar nom, so it’s possible Williams still makes it through. But she’s looking shaky now.
It’s hard to ignore the fact that Ana de Armas (Blonde) landed nominations from both BAFTA and SAG to add to her Golden Globe nomination. That’s a mighty strong trio of nods that suggests she’s a stronger contender than anyone ever thought. Her film may have been trashed, but her performance was universally praised. And we know the Academy love to acknowledge biopic performances. It’s between Williams and de Armas. Flip a coin at this point.
I should also acknowledge the unexpected grassroots campaign for a nomination for Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie. She’s seen a whole swag of high-profile actors campaign on her behalf including Blanchett, who used her Critics’ Choice Awards acceptance speech to give Riseborough a shout-out. Is it possible Riseborough gets in? Sure, anything could happen. Actors listen to their fellow actors, so this kind of push could be hugely influential. If they are successful and Riseborough joins the final five, it could change the way campaigns are run forever more. Or it could just be a one-off anomaly never to be repeated again.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (Orion Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, SAG
5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG