With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Let’s be honest; it’s not a strong year for the Best Adapted Screenplay category. In previous seasons, it’s been one of the most competitive and exciting races. But the fact that Top Gun: Maverick could genuinely land a nomination here shows how tepid the competition is this year.
For much of the season, most of us presumed Sarah Polley was winning this one in a cakewalk for Women Talking. Despite a strong reaction at the fall festivals and strong reviews, the film just hasn’t caught fire at all. With a win at Critics’ Choice, the lion’s share of critics prizes, and nominations from the Golden Globes and USC Scripter, Polley is certain of an Oscar nod, but a win is now looking decidedly shaky.
Samuel D. Hunter scored nods from BAFTA and Critics’ Choice and The Whale seems solid for a Best Picture nomination, so he’s safely in the race for screenplay now. And a win now seems far more likely than before. Rian Johnson has only landed a nomination from Critics’ Choice, but Knives Out scored an Oscar nod and it seems fairly certain Glass Onion will too, especially given the lack of competition here.
While Living is likely to only score an additional nomination for Best Actor for Bill Nighy, the pedigree of Nobel Prize winner Kazuo Ishiguro should be enough to see him sneak into this category. That leaves the final spot up for grabs. It could absolutely be Rebecca Lenkiewicz for She Said. She has a trio of big precursor nominations, but the film has only lost buzz as the season as progressed. I think the fifth slot is going to the trio behind All Quiet on the Western Front. The film has peaked late in the game and, in all honesty, it could even be an upset winner here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Whale – Samuel D. Hunter (A24) – BAFTA, CCA
2. Women Talking – Sarah Polley (United Artists Releasing) – CCA, GG, USC
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (Netflix) – CCA
4. Living – Kazuo Ishiguro (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC
5. All Quiet on the Western Front – Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson, Edward Berger (Netflix) – BAFTA
Alternate: She Said – Rebecca Lenkiewicz (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, USC