With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
With nominations at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the Directors Guild of America, and appearing on the BAFTA longlist, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) all feel like locks for Best Director nods. Is there a chance either Coogle or Zhao is snubbed? Knowing the Academy, yes, it could happen. The backlash would be severe, so it’s best not to even ponder it.
In the battle for those final two spots, we’ve realistically got three directors in contention, and all missed one key precursor nod. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) is missing DGA, Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) was absent with CCA, and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) was surprisingly snubbed by BAFTA. All three directed films that are expected to receive a huge tally of overall nominations. So who misses out?
The DGA and the Academy haven’t gone 5/5 since 2009, so that works in Trier’s favour. The fact that he just won Best European Director at the European Film Awards gives him an edge here. In six of the last seven years, the Academy has nominated the director of a non-English language film. Trier is this year’s pick. In saying that, Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent) or Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) could fit that bill, too, so a surprise nod for either might be waiting in the wings.
So that leaves us with a duel between Safdie and del Toro for that final spot. And it could truly go either way. We know the Academy adores del Toro, but Safdie’s film has the bigger buzz coming into the final stages of the season. The fact del Toro missed with BAFTA is the stat that’s making me lean towards Safdie.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, DGA, GG
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, DGA, GG
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, DGA, GG
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA longlist, DGA, CCA
Alternate: Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix) – CCA, DGA, GG