With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
The biggest question mark heading into the Oscar nominations announcement still centres around The Perfect Neighbor. It dominated at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards. It’s on the BAFTA longlist. It nabbed a PGA nomination. But other archival footage documentaries have travelled this path and still failed to win over the Academy’s documentary branch. I think its subject matter gives it an edge here that those in the past did not have, so I’m predicting it to squeak in.
The strongest contenders appear to be 2000 Meters to Andriivka and Cover-Up. Both scored nominations from CCA, Cinema Eye Honors, and PGA, as well as appearing on the BAFTA longlist. Mr. Nobody Against Putin landed with PGA and the BAFTA longlist, so that pushes it into the top five for me. And something as epic as the five-and-half-hour My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow feels like the kind of doco they will want to honour.
This category is always extremely tough to predict, especially without a clear consensus on a top five from other awards shows, so just go with your gut and hope for the best on this one, folks.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS Distribution) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, CEH, Gotham, PGA
2. Cover-Up (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, CEH, IDA Special Mention, PGA
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Bantam Film) – BAFTA longlist, PGA
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (Argot Pictures) – Gotham
5. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, Gotham, PGA
Alternate: Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, IDA