With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Unlike last year where Summer of Soul essentially led the race right from the start, Best Documentary Feature feels wildly open this season. No clear frontrunner has really emerged and the battle for the final five spots is entirely up in the air.
Fire of Love and Navalny haven’t missed a beat all season long with nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, the Cinema Eye Honors, the International Documentary Association, and the Producers Guild of America, so they both feel relatively safe. All That Breathes may have missed a nod from Critics’ Choice, but its surprise wins at the Cinema Eye Honors and IDA Awards plus nominations from BAFTA and PGA push it to the front of the pack for now.
Golden Lion winner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed seems like another sure bet. It has won the most prizes with the critics groups including Los Angeles and New York plus nominations from BAFTA, Cinema Eye Honours, and the International Documentary Association. And it’s got the prestige behind it with previous Oscar winner Laura Poitras behind the director’s chair.
That leaves us with a fifth spot open to any number of possibilities. Moonage Daydream has nods from BAFTA and Critics’ Choice plus the might of the music and the majesty of David Bowie, but it seems unlikely NEON will grab 3 of the 5 spots. Descendent has the power of Netflix behind it. There’s a lot of love out there for Bad Axe and Retrograde. But there’s something about The Territory and its subject matter that feels too hard to ignore. And National Geographic Documentary Films know how to campaign a contender.
BEST DOCUMENTARY PREDICTIONS:
1. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, PGA
2. Fire of Love (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA
4. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
5. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films) – CEH, PGA
Alternate: Moonage Daydream (NEON) BAFTA, CCA