With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. For the second year in a row, we’re in a situation where the critics’ leader is not part of the Oscars race. Anatomy of a Fall has picked up the lion’s share of wins with the critics this season, including the Critics Choice Awards plus at the Golden Globe Awards. Alas, it was strangely not France’s submission, and so its awards journey lies with potential nominations elsewhere.
Given we must ignore what so many critics groups had to say, we can instead turn our focus to the major precursor awards. The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow have scored nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice, so they feel like our two certainties for an Oscar nod. And that’s really where the certainties end.
Fallen Leaves felt relatively safely in the top five, particularly after Alma Pöysti landed a surprise Golden Globe acting nomination. But that BAFTA snub took some wind out of its sails. Then again, unlike the Academy, BAFTA had the opportunity to nominate both Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives and that might explain how Fallen Leaves missed out. France has such a strong history with this category and that’s really my only thought process behind selecting The Taste of Things in the fourth spot. Plus, it was BAFTA long-listed (again, it was possibly close to a nomination) and sits at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.
That leaves the final slot open to all sorts of possibilities. Maybe it’s Japan’s Perfect Days or Italy’s Io Capitano. It could be Mexico’s Tótem or Denmark’s The Promised Land. But I’m going with Ukraine’s 20 Days in Mariupol on pertinency alone. But the Academy often loves to pick something completely unexpected here, so don’t be surprised to see it go to Bhutan’s The Monk and the Gun or Armenia’s Amerikatsi.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Zone of Interest (UK) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Society of the Snow (Spain) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. Fallen Leaves (Finland) – GG
4. The Taste of Things (France) – CCA
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine) – BAFTA
Alternate: Perfect Days (Japan) – CCA