With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. While the race for Best Adapted Screenplay is rather, ahem, tepid, the battle for Original Screenplay is mighty strong. And it’s still anyone’s guess who will come out on top as the eventual winner.
For now, there are four nominees who all feel like pretty solid locks. The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, and TÁR have all scored nominations from BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes. Banshees took the win at the Globes. EEAAO scored at CCA. And the pair have split the critics wins, so it’s shaping up to be a tight battle between the two.
While it’s true The Fabelmans has cooled slightly as a potential Best Picture winner, the one-two punch of Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner behind the film’s screenplay was even too strong for BAFTA to ignore. Todd Field’s previous two films both scored screenplay nods from the Academy and TÁR will make it three in a row. Consider them both locked in.
That leaves our final spot up for grabs and it’s likely going to Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness. In most years, we get a screenplay nomination that represents the only acknowledgement for that film and that feels right here. That is, of course, unless Dolly de Leon can crash the Best Supporting Actress field. Heck, there’s even a chance the film steals the 10th spot in the Best Picture race, so a screenplay nod seems relatively certain.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. TÁR – Todd Field (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund (NEON) – BAFTA
Alternate: Aftersun – Charlotte Wells (A24) – CCA