With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions.
In the race for Best Original Song, only “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters and “I Lied to You” from Sinners have received nominations from the four major precursor awards: the Golden Globe Awards, the Critics Choice Awards, the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, and the Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards. Realistically, they’re our only two sure things.
In saying that, a nomination for 16-time nominee Diane Warren is also essentially an inevitability, so consider “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless locked in as well. As much as Wicked: For Good has fallen off as an overall contender, it seems likely the songwriters branch will still want to honour nine-time nominee Stephen Schwartz. For whatever reason, it appears “The Girl in the Bubble” is the chosen track of the two songs in contention. Personally, I think “No Place Like Home” is the better song. Alas, I can’t see both of them making it in.
So that leaves the final spot up for grabs. Perhaps Sinners gets two nominations here and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” makes it through. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light is written by Sara Bareilles and Brandi Carlile, who are beloved in the music industry. One could say the same of Ed Sheeran, who wrote “Drive” from F1. But there’s just something about Nick Cave’s “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams that feels like the kind of melancholy number this branch so often fawns over.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) – CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (Greenwich Entertainment) – HMMA (documentary), SCL
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) – CCA, GG
Alternate: “Last Time (I Seen The Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) – HMMA (main), SCL